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RBA now twice as likely to hike interest rate as US-Iran war drives fuel prices higher

Experts warn global energy market at a ‘critical juncture’ with escalating Middle East crisis expected to further drag on a slowing Australian economy

The likelihood of a Reserve Bank interest rate hike has doubled according to market forecasts, as the escalating Middle East crisis once again drives fuel prices higher amid dwindling global oil reserves.

The total breakdown in the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has sent the international Brent crude benchmark surging by 23% over the past two weeks and back within reach of $US90 a barrel.

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Jul 21, 2026 Reserve Bank of Australia Economics Australia news

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